Community Corner

Hurricane Irene Forecasted to Track East, Officials Urge Preparation

National Hurricane Center forecasters say storm tracking eastward due to a subtropical ridge

Though Hurricane Irene has evolved to become a physically "impressive" storm, it will most likely track farther to the east and slightly farther away from land, according to predictions from the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Center Forecaster Todd Kimberlain wrote in an advisory Wednesday morning that while the current forecast track of the storm has not changed much since yesterday, newer forecast models are saying the storm may move a bit farther to the east than first expected.

"The dynamic track model concensus has, again, shifted a little to the east from the previous [forecast] package," Kimberlain wrote in an 8 a.m. forecast discussion posted on the National Hurricane Center's website.

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Meteorologist Steve DiMartino, of NYNJPAweather.com, said he was more hesitant to forecast a move to the east and trust forecast models that can sometimes be sketchy.

"I'm very, very hesitant to push this hurricane as far east as the National Hurricane Center is right now," DiMartino said. "The models are trying to play catch-up, and when they try to play catch-up, they sometimes overcompensate."

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"The trough that's going to kick this hurricane out is over the north Pacific right now," said DiMartino. "That's one of the worst areas in terms of data collection."

DiMartino said he is forecasting the storm to move close in on the New Jersey coast, then kick out towards Long Island. There is a good chance for high winds and flooding in coastal areas, he said.

The latest wind speed probability graphic from the hurricane center indicates that the Jersey Shore has a 30 to 40 percent chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds - winds from 39 to 74 m.p.h., in the next 120 hours. The current track of Irene places the storm off the coast of Cape May around 8 a.m. Sunday morning with wind speeds of 100 m.p.h.

The Monmouth County Office of Emergency Management has created a set of guidelines and tips for residents of coastal areas prone to flooding.

Taking some basics steps now means you will be ready for virtually any big weather event or other disaster that may affect Monmouth County,” Freeholder Thomas A. Arnone, liaison to the county’s OEM, said in a press release. “Every resident should prepare, plan and stay informed.”

The county's keys for readiness are as follows:

  • Prepare –  Assemble a Kit of Emergency Supplies – Batteries, flashlight, radio, first-aid kit,  medications, food and water to last three or more days, can opener, cooking tools, toiletries.
  • Create an Emergency Plan – Your family may not be together when disaster strikes, so plan a way to contact one another, such as enlisting the help of a third party in another state as a contact, and review what you will do in different situations.
  • Stay Informed – Listen to local radio and television for the latest information on storms and other emergencies.  Review what warning sirens are used in your community to alert residents of major emergencies.

“Preparing for the worst makes dealing with it that much easier,” Monmouth County Sheriff Shaun Golden said. “The likelihood that you and your family will survive a nor’easter, hurricane or other emergency depends on the preparations that you make now.”

Arnone has also stressed financial readiness.

“To bring your readiness to the next level you should prepare your finances and consider making yourself available to help your neighbors in an emergency,” Arnone said.

The county advises: "Consider your insurance and financial needs in the event of a disaster. Also, take time to prepare a household inventory. If an evacuation is necessary, be sure to have cash or credit cards at your disposal."

Monmouth County OEM has also provided a number of recommendations for emergency supply kits. The list of items to include is as follows:

  • Water, one gallon of water per person per day for at least three days, for drinking and sanitation
  • Food, at least a three-day supply of non-perishable food
  • Battery-powered or hand crank radio and a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert and extra batteries for both
  • Flashlight and extra batteries
  • First aid kit
  • Whistle to signal for help
  • Dust mask, to help filter contaminated air and plastic sheeting and duct tape to shelter-in-place
  • Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties for personal sanitation
  • Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities
  • Can opener for food (if kit contains canned food)
  • Local maps
  • Cell phone with chargers

Additional items to consider adding to an Emergency Supply Kit:

  • Prescription medications and glasses
  • Infant formula and diapers
  • Pet food and extra water for your pet
  • Important family documents such as copies of insurance policies, identification and bank account records in a waterproof, portable container
  • Cash or traveler's checks and change
  • Emergency reference material such as a first aid book or information from www.ready.gov
  • Sleeping bag or warm blanket for each person. Consider additional bedding if you live in a cold-weather climate.
  • Complete change of clothing including a long sleeved shirt, long pants and sturdy shoes. Consider additional clothing if you live in a cold-weather climate.
  • Household chlorine bleach and medicine dropper – When diluted nine parts water to one part bleach, bleach can be used as a disinfectant. Or in an emergency, you can use it to treat water by using 16 drops of regular household liquid bleach per gallon of water. Do not use scented, color safe or bleaches with added cleaners.
  • Fire Extinguisher
  • Matches in a waterproof container
  • Feminine supplies and personal hygiene items
  • Mess kits, paper cups, plates and plastic utensils, paper towels
  • Paper and pencil
  • Books, games, puzzles or other activities for children


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