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NHC: 'Life Threatening' Storm Surge Predicted for Coastline

Forecast models agree on New Jersey strike

Hurricane Sandy's predicted track continued to hone in on areas along the New Jersey coastline on Sunday afternoon, as the National Hurricane warned of a "life threatening" storm surge associated with the massive storm.

The Barrier islands in Ocean County had already started to flood by late morning, and waves whipped up by already-gusty winds began eroding beaches.

On Long Beach Island, crews made quick work of last-minute checklist items in preparation for the storm, including taking away metal trash and recycling cans at beach entrances.

In Brick Township, officials ordered all residents off the barrier island section of town, and prepared a local state of emergency that would ban nonessential motor vehicle traffic in town after 11 p.m., Police Chief Nils R. Bergquist said.

Meanwhile, National Hurricane Center forecasters said at 11 a.m. Sunday that no significant changes had been made to the predicted track of the immense weather system, and landfall was still expected to occurr somewhere on the New Jersey coast.

Forecast model guidance was "tightly packed," meaning nearly all of the forecast models agreed on the storm's path.

A storm surge map showed a more than 50 percent chance of a four-foot surge in Monmouth, Ocean and Atlantic counties, and a 40 percent chance of a surge up to six feet.

The hurricane center warned the storm surge, a wall of water that rushes onshore as a storm makes landfall, could prove "life threatening."

"There is still some potential for Sandy to intensify slightly as a tropical system," a forecast released by the hurricane center said Sunday, before the storm turns into what is known as a hybrid, "extratropical system."

That hybrid system could prove just as dangerous as the named hurricane, however.

"This transition will not diminish the overall impacts of this dangerous weather system," forecasters noted.

Khernandez October 28, 2012 at 05:03 pm
Does anyone know the impact expected in the marlboro/manalapan areas?
Adam Hochron (Editor) October 28, 2012 at 05:05 pm
We don't know anything specific yet. Basically what they're saying is if you were affected by Hurricane Irene you can expect something along those lines again if not worse this time around. We'll keep you updated as the storm gets closer though.
Khernandez October 28, 2012 at 05:13 pm
Thank you. Haven't seen anything on here about the marlboro/manalapan area so I was concerned. Any idea when this is supposed to hit the shore by us or when the worst will be here? I'm just worried have a 6 year old and have another on the way so I'm concerned now
Adam Hochron (Editor) October 28, 2012 at 05:24 pm
They haven't said specifically when we'll get hit yet from what I've seen. I'd imagine they're waiting to see exactly when the storm will make the left toward the coast before determining just how bad it will be.
Manalapan has set up a number to call with storm related questions: 732-446-3200 Marlboro also seems to be updating their website pretty regularly with the latest information.
Middletown Mom October 28, 2012 at 06:09 pm
Like many Middletown residents, I have made an effort to stow away outside belongings: lawn furniture, flower pots, Halloween decorations (sorry, kids!) -- anything that could become a projectile in high winds. May I respectfully suggest that local politicians do the same with their many signs dotting the area? Seriously...If your name disappears by late Sunday afternoon, I am more inclined to vote for you.
Khernandez October 28, 2012 at 06:31 pm
Thank you. Do you happen to have the web address for marlboro?
Adam Hochron (Editor) October 28, 2012 at 06:32 pm
Here ya go: http://www.marlboro-nj.gov/
Wally Wall October 28, 2012 at 06:53 pm
All the forcast say ALL of NJ will be hit. What more do you need to know
Paul M October 28, 2012 at 07:13 pm
Hopefully Marlboro/Manalapan are inland enough that they don't get hit with the intensity the coastal towns are. Am ready for it to be over already.
Happy LaLa October 29, 2012 at 01:43 pm
I find a lot of good information at:
www.newjerseyweather.com They're pretty "on" for the most part, with past storms. I like them. Be safe everyone
Carol Mc Cabe November 7, 2012 at 12:56 am
Greetings from dubln Ireland ! I hope all my friends in red bank are ok! Could not reach u by email. I hope all is ok for you carolann mcloughlin and your family...let me know xx

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